By Nick Mabey.
It’s a cliché – that the league table never lies – but is it a truth or a myth?
This season, Southampton have already occupied a range of places from 1st (briefly) to 19th in the Championship so what does that tell us? After nine games the Saints find themselves in 17th place, five points above the relegation places, which doesn’t sound great. At the same time, we’re only four points below the play-off places – so technically nearer 6th than 22nd. If it doesn’t tell outright lies, the league table appears to be a little misleading.
Not that I’m trying to pretend it’s not been a disappointing start to the season for us – the honeymoon period is well and truly over. Since writing to you just before the Pompey game, (you can read it here) we’ve played five leagues games, winning one, losing one and drawing three. Since the start of three points for a win in 1981, draws have felt more like defeats than wins, which is contributing to the downbeat mood.
More than that, though, it’s the performances which have worried most fans. The way we were out-thought, out-fought and outplayed by Portsmouth was as surprising as it was unforgiveable, and this was followed by what I really hope was the nadir of our season, with a heavy loss at Hull. Since then things have looked up, including a spirited defeat away to Liverpool, but it’s still not yet fully clicking and the quiet grumblings are getting louder.
Back to the league table: every season I try not to look at it until ten games have been played, because it changes so much. I’m going with nine this season for the benefit of this article, which comes during an international break, when there is actually a moment to pause and reflect. When I look at the Championship table today, it throws up many surprises. QPR, Stoke and Preston probably wouldn’t realistically have expected to find themselves in the play-off positions, while pre-season favourites Ipswich are 9th and, as I’ve said, Saints 17th. Bottom of the league Sheffield United were hotly tipped for the top six. So is the league table lying or did the pundits get it wrong?
It all reminds me of some research I read that was carried out some years ago by American sports betting analysts. The broad thrust was that in a low-scoring sport like football, where most games are either drawn or decided by the odd-goal, points is a less reliable predictor of team performance and potential than goal difference. If you look at a league table toward the end of the season, points achieved and goal difference correlate far more than earlier in proceedings. ‘What is the your point Nick?’ I hear you cry. Well I guess I’m saying that the league table can lie, particularly in the early stages of the season. And if you want to predict the final league positions, pay more attention to goal difference.
If I apply this research to the current Championship table, there is a little more positivity for Saints, but not much. Our goal difference of -1 would see us in joint 10th with four other teams. Coventry’s goal difference, a massive +20 and 13 more than the next best, would suggest they are far more likely to win the league than their one point lead does. Interestingly, Millwall in 8th have the same goal difference (-3) as Oxford who are in 22nd. It seems more likely that Coventry will win overall than that Millwall will make the play-offs.
Of course, by the time we get to May it won’t matter what goal difference anyone has. The table cannot lie when it is finally settled. But for now, and at least until the new year, there is scope for fans to dream that league positions may not be as truthful as they seem. I hope and pray that for Saints fans (as well citizens of Sheffield) that at least in the Championship that proves to be the case.
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